Forecasting Demand: future capabilities
Step 1 / 3·Critical roles first, numbers second
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Learning objectives — after this module you will:
- Identify critical roles and future capabilities from strategy
- Understand a skills taxonomy and the skill lifecycle (growing – stable – declining)
- Estimate demand by scenario rather than a single hard number
Critical roles first, numbers second
Know to start demand forecasting from the critical roles.
No organization can forecast demand for EVERY position — and it doesn't need to. SWP focuses on CRITICAL ROLES: roles that (1) create outsized value for the strategy, or (2) are scarce in the market, or (3) whose vacancy paralyzes operations. Usually only 10–15% of positions are critical.
For each critical role, ask further: will this role in 3 years be the SAME as today? The 'machine operator' job in an automated plant will need added skills of reading sensor data and handling anomalies — demand isn't just a headcount, it's NEW CAPABILITIES in an old job.
The skill lifecycle — see the skill portfolio as an investment portfolio
| Group | Characteristics | Action |
|---|---|---|
| GROWING skills | The strategy needs more: data, automation, AI... | Invest to build early — the longer you wait, the more expensive |
| STABLE skills | Still needed steadily: core expertise, safety, quality | Maintain via periodic training and coaching |
| DECLINING skills | New tech/processes gradually replace them | Plan to reskill those holding these skills BEFORE the crisis |
Key takeaway: Focus on the 10–15% critical roles; demand includes new capabilities in old jobs; manage skills like an investment portfolio.