Supply and Gap: examine the workforce today
Step 1 / 3·Supply is a flow, not a snapshot
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Learning objectives — after this module you will:
- Analyze supply: the current state + flows (in, out, transfer)
- Project future supply with attrition and retirement
- Quantify the gap by both quantity and capability quality
Supply is a flow, not a snapshot
See the workforce as a lake with inflows and outflows.
A common mistake: count 'today we have 20 technicians' then plan. Real supply is a FLOW: 20 today, but with 10%/year attrition, 2 near retirement and 1 about to be promoted elsewhere — after 2 years only about 13–14 OLD people remain, not counting quality.
A simple projection formula: Future supply = Current − Expected attrition − Retirement − Promotions/transfers out + Planned hires & transfers in. Data needed: age, tenure, attrition history by group, skills-matrix results (learned at Level 2).
Don't forget the quality gap
A gap isn't just 'short 5 people'. You might have 20 people but only 8 at the required capability level for the new line — a quality gap is often more dangerous than a quantity gap because it's hard to see on a headcount report.
Key takeaway: Supply = flow (in − out − transfers); the gap includes both quantity and capability quality.